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While headlines swing on battles or drone strikes, the math of attrition and resupply grinds on in the background. So today, I look at some of the areas where Ukrainian capabilities may be growing in 2026, and at least one where shortages are acute and ongoing.

Patreon:

https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Reading and Sourcing (partial):

IISS

Military Balance 2021 and 2026

Visually confirmed losses and pledged resupply per Oryx

Featured Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Report

https://valisluureamet.ee/doc/raport/2026-en.pdf

GICHD - Explosive Weapons Effects

https://www.gichd.org/fileadmin/uploads/gichd/Publications/Explosive_weapon_effects_web.pdf

CAT-UXO - OF25 Projectile

https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/projectiles/152mm-of25-projectile

SAAB signs Gripen fighter deal with Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saab-signs-254-billion-gripen-fighter-jet-deal-with-ukraine-2026-06-30/

https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-gripen-fighters-to-arrive-in-2027-long-range-meteor-missiles-claimed-to-be-included

Reporting on Russian claimed shoot down rates for fixed wing drones

https://defence-blog.com/russia-claims-it-shot-down-64000-ukrainian-drones-in-six-months/

BBC Urdu on claimed Pakistan munitions exports relevant to Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/urdu/articles/cyd2em264ypo

Example Reporting on DPRK arms shipments to Russia

https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-halves-arms-shipments-to-russia-as-its-own-stockpiles-run-low-ukraines-intelligence-says/

https://maritime-executive.com/article/north-korean-shipments-of-shells-to-russia-tail-off

Institute for Science and International Security - Monthly Analysis of Russian Shahed 136 deployment against Ukraine (June 22 2026)

https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/monthly-analysis-of-russian-shahed-136-deployment-against-ukraine

Reporting on Rheinmetall ammo production

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/germany-has-overtaken-us-in-ammunition-output/

https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2025/06/2025-06-03-rheinmetall-receives-major-international-orders-for-155mm-artillery-ammunition

https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/12/germany-shell-casings-plant/

Ukraine 2.4 million rounds claim

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/06/8001465/

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/09/8001941/

Ukraine contracts Patriot interceptors

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-buy-100-patriot-missiles-billion-eu-loan-russia-war-2026-7

report on dates of Russian missile and drone wreckage

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/06/05/production-dates-on-downed-russian-weapons-reveal-country-may-be-running-on-zero-reserve-with-one-particularly-dangerous-exception/

Ukraine France Framework deal in 2025

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy170jkekdo

Skynex

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/skynex-anti-aircraft-systems-were-used-to-shoot-down-shaheds/

US 155mm ramp-up

https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/army-official-not-happy-with-gds-handling-of-155mm-contract-as-production-lags/

Example TA-20 filled shells

https://x.com/Helvegen29/status/2064971736622211078

Poland MiG 29 deal

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/06/30/no-migs-for-ukraine-polish-defence-minister-claims-kyiv-backed-out-of-deal-with-warsaw

Ukraine minimum drone supply reform

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukraine-guaranteed-minimum-drones-monthly/

Russian jet-powered OWA UAS

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia-jet-drones-eightfold-1400-units-2026/

Ukraine seeks loan missile agreement

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/4139530-ukraine-secures-contract-for-hundreds-of-antiballistic-missiles-moves-toward-domestic-production-dm-fedorov.html

Caveats & Comments:

All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Intro

00:00:25 — What Am I Talking About?

00:02:50 — the Overview

00:04:19 — UAS

00:15:26 — Air Power

00:31:29 — Artillery

00:43:51 — Air Defence

00:59:11 — the Overall Picture

01:01:23 — Channel Update