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Russia’s budget deficit is getting much worse than expected.

At the start of 2026, Moscow was forecasting a deficit of around 1.6% of GDP. That figure has now climbed towards 3%, while government borrowing is also set to rise beyond previous plans.

In this video, I look at why Russia’s finances are coming under increasing pressure despite relatively high oil prices, a weaker rouble and continued energy export revenues.

We also look at the wider economic pressures facing Russia, including higher government spending, expensive borrowing costs, inflation, refinery disruption, fuel shortages and the growing cost of maintaining the war economy.

The key question is not whether Russia can finance a 3% deficit today. It almost certainly can.

The bigger question is what happens if these pressures continue into 2027 and beyond, particularly if oil prices weaken, interest rates remain high or disruption to Russia’s energy infrastructure continues.

And because Russia remains one of the world’s largest exporters of oil, gas, metals, fertilisers and other commodities, what happens inside the Russian economy can have much wider implications for global inflation, energy prices and financial markets.

If you enjoy the video, please give it a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel and hit the Hype button if it’s available to you.

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