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Trump seems intent on going to war with the world. But he's not really in control.

For citations, turn on CC. Sources listed below.

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SOURCES

A. Alan Cowell and Farnaz Fassihi, “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Autocratic Cleric Who Made Iran a Regional Power, Is Dead at 86,” in the New York Time, 28 February 2026.

B. Julian E. Barnes, Tyler Pager, Eric Schmitt, “Inside ‘Operation Absolute Resolve,’ the U.S. Effort to Capture Maduro,” in the New York Times, 3 January 2026.

C. Chris Cameron, “Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland,” in the New York Times, 5 January 2026.

D. Paul Kennedy, The Rise And Fall of Great Powers (Vintage Books, 1987).

E. Benjamin Cohen, International Political Economy: An Intellectual History (Princeton University Press, 2008).

F. Mark Carney, “Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada,” 20 January 2026.

G. US Department of Defense, “Freedom of Navigation (FON) Program,” 28 February 2017.

H. World Bank, “Military expenditure (% of GDP) - European Union.”

I. World Bank Group, “Pathways Out of the Polycrisis: Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024” (2024).

J. Government of Canada, “North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - Fast Facts,” 22 January 2018.

K. Kevin Bahr, “U.S. Manufacturing Employment: A Long-Term Perspective,” University of Wisconsin Stevens Point, 29 January 2025.

L. Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow, “Here’s How Much Aid the United States Has Sent Ukraine,” Council on Foreign Relations, 23 February 2026.

M. Alexandr Burilkov, Juan Mejino-López, and Guntram B. Wolff, “The US defence industrial base can no longer reliably supply Europe,” Bruegel, 18 December 2024.

N. Eric Schmitt, “Trump Says Top General Predicts Easy Victory Over Iran; He Says Otherwise in Private,” in the New York Times, 23 February 2026.

O. Callum Jones and Lauren Almeida, “Gas prices soar and oil jumps as Iran war pushes down global stock markets,” in The Guardian, 3 March 2026.

The following citations demonstrate the plausibility of the scenarios:

P. “Today’s wars are fought in the ‘gray zone.’ Here’s everything you need to know about it.” The Atlantic Council, 23 February 2022.

Q. Mark A. Green, “Seventy-One Percent of South Koreans Now Support the Return of Nuclear Weapons to Their Country—Even if it Means Developing Their Own,” in Stubborn Things, 31 January 2023.

R. Piret Ehin, Mihkel Solvak, Jan Willemson, and Priit Vinkel, “Internet voting in Estonia 2005–2019: Evidence from eleven elections,” in Government Information Quarterly 39 no. 4 (October 2022).

S. Andrius Sytas and Graham Slattery, “Russian jets enter Estonia's airspace in latest test for NATO,” in Reuters, 20 September 2025.

T. Mark Landler, “Macron Expands French Nuclear Arsenal and Vows Protection for Neighbors,” in The New York Times, 2 March 2026.

U. Jude Blanchette, Briana Boland and Lily McElwee, “What is Beijing’s Timeline for “Reunification” with Taiwan?” for CSIS Interpret: China, 26 May 2023.

V. Ronald Watkins, “Chinese Military Flights Near Taiwan Surge 15-Fold in Five Years: Report,” Defense Post, 2 February 2026.

W. Yimou Lee Joe Cash, and Liz Lee, “China encircles Taiwan in massive military display,” in Reuters, 30 December 2025.

X. Tripp Mickle, “The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored,” in the New York Times, 24 February 2026.

Y. Sakshi Tiwari, “U.S.-China War: Leaked Pentagon Report Says USA Would Lose “Every Time” Without Major Reforms,” in The Eurasian Times, 11 December 2025.

Z. Janis Mackey Frayer and Eric Baculinao, “The U.S. and China running the world together? China says no thanks,” NBC, 7 March 2026.

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00:00 INTRO

02:58 I. THE CYCLE

06:51 II. DECLINE

10:42 III. MIDDLE EAST

13:03 IV. EUROPE

15:35 V. EAST ASIA

17:04 VI. WAR

21:01 VII. PEACE

25:46 VIII. FINAL WORD

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Includes Music by Tom Fox