Iran fired two deadly missiles at a US destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC said both hit. CENTCOM said nothing hit. Both statements came out within 47 minutes of each other. Both cannot be true. USS Fitzgerald was escorting two merchant ships through the strait under Project Freedom. Two Noor missiles launched from Bandar Lengeh at 09:08. Both intercepted by SM-2 — first at 7.2 nautical miles, second at 5.1 nautical miles. Zero damage. Zero casualties. The merchant ships made it through. Then Iran's radar data explains everything.

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Why Iran's IRGC said both missiles hit when both were intercepted, how two SM-2 detonations look identical to two missile impacts on radar, and why the 47-minute gap between Iran's statement and CENTCOM's denial moved global oil markets by 4.3 percent.

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Naval Dispatch — military analysis in English.

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